Skip to main content

About this Show

The Daily Rundown

News/Business. The day's top political stories. New.

NETWORK

DURATION
01:00:00

RATING

SCANNED IN
San Francisco, CA, USA

SOURCE
Comcast Cable

TUNER
Port 50001

VIDEO CODEC
mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
mp2

PIXEL WIDTH
720

PIXEL HEIGHT
480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Washington 11, Rubio 8, North Carolina 7, Boehner 7, Florida 6, Missouri 6, Donald Trump 5, California 5, America 5, Karen Finney 4, David Wasserman 4, Chuck 4, Obama 4, Us 4, Illinois 4, United States 3, Unitedhealthcare 3, Kay Bailey Hutchison 3, Rupert Murdoch 3, Karen 3,
Borrow a DVD
of this show
  MSNBC    The Daily Rundown    News/Business. The day's  
   top political stories. New.  

    July 22, 2011
    6:00 - 7:00am PDT  

6:00am
mormon"? >> will i love it? >> exciting. and the rest of us are going to try to stay cool. i'm going up to boston to see the red sox, it will be, like, 800 degrees out there. anyway, if it's way too early, it's "morning joe," stick around, it's chuck todd and "the daily rundown." have a good weekend. place your bets. it's the bush tax cuts versus the obama health care plan. a final debt deal might put each party's favorite prize on the table as a penalty for inaction. and here's a quote for you. it was a negotiation. i don't mean to sound negative, but it isn't exactly like christmas has come along here. no, that's not a member of congress or the west wing staff. that's dallas cowboys' owner jerry jones talking about the nfl labor fight. sure fits the bill, though, here in washington, d.c., about how the debt deal is being received.
6:01am
the 2012 presidential race, some of the front-runners might not like the headlines they're getting, mitt romney sounding like president obama on the economy. and drawing the line, we're geeking out today over -- wait for it -- redistricting. the pivotal states that could actually shift the balance in the house in 2013. why the new maps may be getting a little more blue. good morning from washington. it's friday, july 22nd, 2011. i'm chuck todd. july 22nd, a very important date to me. i'll tell you later. let's get right to my first reads of the morning. now we know there are really two sticking points holding up the debt ceiling deal. substance and ego. we'll start with ego. the house and the senate are each selling something that the other side won't buy supposedly. but as speaker boehner realized that the mcconnell/reid plan wouldn't fly in the house at all, he came back around to a bigger bargain and decided that he and cantor were better off cutting a deal directly.
6:02am
possibly $3 trillion in spending cuts. now, the senate, it was -- when history is written on this, the idea of the mitch mcconnell fail-safe plan actually motivated some of the base in the house, boehner's base, in the tea party caucus, to say, hey, wait a minute, we didn't come here to givek(q the presid more power when it comes to spending. we came here to try to cut spending, brought boehner, brought the white house back to the table, back to talking about something big. now, look, we still got a long ways to go. it's a weekend of sales jobs going on right now that actually began last night when the president had the congressional democratic leadership over to start talking turkey. so that brings us to the other sticking point, the actual substance. everybody has to figure out what to cut. this isn't going to be as easy as folks think and both sides are moving toward a deal that would include a trigger to assure mutually destructive politically when it comes to the two big items being kicked to
6:03am
committees or joint committees and that's still being figured out, tax and entitlements. one incentive plan would kill bush tax cuts for the rich and key portions of the new health care law if somehow the reforms for the tax code and social security and medicare weren't agreed to and implemented by january 1st, 2013. the question is, is the penalty on the bush tax cuts sort of the idea that you're kicking this down, is that going to be enough to assuage some democrats who believe there's too many cuts up front and nothing on revenues up front. bottom line, there's real exposure here for both parties' bases which brings us back to something else we heard yesterday. the grover norquist decision and while he's been talking his way around it, the bottom line, he said allowing the bush tax cuts to expire wouldn't be scored as a tax hike as far as his pledge is concerned. and now you understand why that penalty now is somehow
6:04am
potentially a part of this deal. and while this battle dominates washington, washington news media, what about the republican candidates trying to win their party's presidential nomination. are they relegated to a side show, are they happy for it for the time being? mitt romney is happy, tim pawlenty, jon huntsman, chasing romney, and frankly chasing michele bachmann, not so happy about it. john boehner isn't the only leader feeling heat from members of his own party. president obama is now hearing from a lot of democrats including senate democrats who aren't sure they like where the debt talks are heading. joining me now senator claire mccaskill, she's a democrat from missouri and somewhat who likes to speak her mind. senator, nice to see you this morning. >> thanks, chuck. >> all right, the outlines of this deal that we're hearing about that would have cuts up front and the revenue conversation on taxes taking place over the next 18 months
6:05am
with penalties, if nothing gets implemented, is a broad outline. i know you want to see details. what do you think? >> well, you know, first of all, i've been working on cuts for a long time, and jeff sessions and i came close to passing a cap on spending even before last november's elections. so, i think that cuts are very important. having said that. i think it's going to be very important that we get some kind of compromise from the house. it is ridiculous that these guys won't even budge on writing checks to big oil. they're more willing to decimate medicare than they are willing to take a dime away from the most profitable corporations on the planet, that's taxpayer money, that's going to those corporations. so, i do think that compromise is going to have to be shown in some regard when it comes to revenues are cleaning out the tax goodies in the tax code. >> so, let's focus on this revenue thing. one of the centerpieces of this
6:06am
deal that i know hasn't been well received on your side of the aisle is this idea that any of the loopholes that could get closed, any of that stuff, is basically being punted to tax reform. now, if the bush tax cuts go away for the wealthiest, if any of that happens. is that sort of trust but verified approach okay with you? >> well, i think it might be. clearly, we want to do away with the tax cuts for the wealthy. we tried to do that last december. and couldn't get the votes, but i know the president feels strongly about that. i know that most democrats feel very strongly about that. and i think that might be something that would work if it was a fail-safe. but i don't know until we see the details. clearly compromise is going to have to happen. and it's very interesting to me that these guys are playing russian roulette with the whole stability of our economy on this
6:07am
debt ceiling, and we're not talking about raising the limit on the credit card, chuck. we're talking about whether or not we're making payments on the car we bought. this is about paying our bills. it's not about authorizing more spending. >> you comfortable with president obama cutting this deal directly with speaker boehner and eric cantor, essentially without harry reid, dick durbin, chuck schumer in the room? >> well, i'm comfortable with him talking to eric cantor and john boehner without everybody in the room. i think that the white house needs to be very careful that they don't take for granted the democrats in the senate. we've done an awful lot of work blocking some ridiculous, extreme proposals that have come over from the house. and we have been kind of the bulwark of protecting the middle-class and working families, so i think it's important to continue to treat us as a partner and not a group of votes that you can take for granted. >> yeah, look, you're up for re-election in 2012, can you sell entitlement reform to 50%
6:08am
plus 1 missourians when it comes to social security and medicare? because part of this is also going to include some very unpopular things on entitlements, our poll has shown that a majority want to see democrats not compromise when it comes to any sort of big cuts into social security and medicare, and, of course, what's the definition? for all of medicare, can you sell that to missourians? >> well, i think it's important that i be forth right and candid with missourians about what it will take to get our debt structure in line. while what the house has proposed is so extreme, and basically puts medicare on life support, what we're talking about now is whether or not we can afford to buy prescription drugs for warren buffett. you know, a slight means testing and meaning the very wealthy would pay a little more for some of the entitlement programs i think is an intellectually honest way to get at this issue. you know, they are so irresponsible some of the republicans saying that this is about saving medicare or saying
6:09am
that -- and then some of the democrats are irresponsible saying that we can't touch any of those programs. in reality, if you understand the numbers of our debt, we've got to compromise on everything. and, frankly, that's way more important than whether or not i get re-elected. >> and social security, raising the retirement age, you open to it at all? >> well, i don't know that we have to raise the retirement age. i think we can look at some other things, you know. it may be that for the next generation, maybe people that still aren't born, it would go up slightly. but more importantly, you know, if you're really wealthy, should you get back all the money you paid into social security? yes, you should. but should you get more? i don't think so. i think once you get back what you paid in, that should be it if you're very wealthy. raising the cap on social security, i think tweaking of these programs in a way that is fair and progressive, i think that's the way we save medicare and social security as the benefit that so many people in america rely on, especially our seniors. >> are you going to be comfortable campaigning with
6:10am
president obama in missouri? >> well, you know, he laughs about it because he says, believe me, if i came to missouri, i'd tell them all how stubborn you and half the time you won't do what i ask you to do. as long as missourians have a sense that i've been willing to swim upstream against the party leadership and including the president, would be great. i'm not always a vote that you can count on as it relates to being fiscally responsible and whatk(q missourians need andi! and as long as he points out that i am independent, i think it would be great if he came to missouri. >> that actually sounds like you said you think the president's going to have a tougher time carrying missouri than you will. >> well, you know, i think it completely depends on where the me i economy is and his opponent. some of the candidates running on the republican side are so extreme, you know, it's very hard for moderate republicans to
6:11am
find a home they're comfortable with right now i think, in some sectors of the republican party. and we've got a wide swath of independents in missouri, so i think it's way too early to tell whether or not missouri is going to be in play for the president. >> all right, claire mccaskill, democrat for missouri, up for re-election in 2012. thanks for coming on the show this morning. >> thank you. up next, the other side of the debt debate. we'll ask senator kay bailey hutchison what she thinks. as you heard from senator mccaskill how the senate has been essentially shut out of the negotiations. still to come, just when you think you're out, they pull you back in. donald trump making a return engagement in the summer of speculation. we're speechless, although we never should be surprised by the donald. but, first, a look ahead of the president's schedule. it's a town hall today in maryland. be interesting to see how much he talks and starts selling some components of this deal that
6:12am
supposedly is in the works with speaker boehner. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. now?! [ female announcer ] crest whitestrips two hour express. in just two hours you can have a noticeably whiter smile that lasts for months. hi. hi. [ female announcer ] two hour whitestrips from crest. life opens up when you do. right? get out. i know! who knew? i mean. exactly! really. that's what i mean.
6:13am
[ mom ] what? shut the front door. right? seriously. who knew? hello sir. bingo! mahjong! for realz. woop-woop! franklin delano! [ male announcer ] hey, there's oreo creme under that fudge! oreo fudge cremes. indescribably good. [ male announcer ] hey, there's oreo creme under that fudge! you could save a bundle with geico's multi-policy discount. geico, saving people money on more than just car insurance. ♪ geico, saving people money on more than just car insurance.
6:14am
6:15am
in the debt talks it appears the final deal is being cut by president obama and speaker boehner. probably the only way a final deal can get done, but that doesn't mean the senate and a lot of individual u.s. senators are happy about being cut out of the loop. with me now, senator kay bailey hutchison, republican from texas. senator, nice to see you this morning. >> thank you, chuck. thank you. >> all right, let me go with what we think we know about what we're hearing about this deal, and in particular the idea of the grand bargain penalty, that if the tax reform changes and
6:16am
the entitlement reform changes aren't enacted by january of 2013, that the bush tax cuts go and parts of the president's health care law go away, disappear, mandate, et cetera. what do you think of the potential penalties, and is that the kind of fail-safe that has to be in there? >> well, i think having a fail-safe concept is a good thing. i do not think that having a tax -- having part of the tax code go permanent and the top part not go permanent so that it's just an open season on employers, i don't like that, of course. i love having anything that will stop this obama health care plan, because i think that's the biggest thing that is hurting our economy right now. that's why people aren't hiring. and if we could do something that would cut that back, it would be great. >> well, it does sound like, then, the fact that you love one part of it, if the penalty went in and would hate the other, i
6:17am
mean, that's the idea, right? that's the design, so that both sides feel uncomfortable here. >> well, you know, i don't think you have to have that much discomfort on the tax side. i thought that the revenue increases through a fair tax code, taking away the write-offs and, you know, in an even handed way and lowering the tax overall brackets was a good way to increase revenue without having a penalty for being someone who's hiring people. so, i like the fact that you've got some things that make you uncomfortable, but if it's too uncomfortable, you're not going to get the votes. >> obviously this has been done almost directly at this point between the white house and the house republican leadership. is it -- do you wish that senator mcconnell and senator
6:18am
kyl were in the room with boehner and cantor, do you trust them to do it without senate republican input at this point? >> well, first of all, mitch mcconnell and jon kyl have been in the room for most of the negotiations and the speaker and mitch mcconnell are in constant contact. i don't think that senator mcconnell is being left out at all. and i think that certainly he is being consulted by the speaker about what kinds of things the republicans in the senate could live with and what they couldn't. because the house is a very different arm. it has different rules, as you know, and what can get through there and what's acceptable there is very different from senators. >> how important was this clarification from grover norquist, a lot of people including yourself, have signed this taxpayer pledge. how important was it that he said, well, the bush tax cuts, if they somehow expired, that wouldn't technically be a violation of the pledge. and he went on to say he doesn't
6:19am
want to see it and all this stuff, but he still said it wouldn't technically violate the pledge and suddenly today we're hearing that's one of the two big penalties being debated. it sounds like that the republicans needed grover to say that. do you get that sense? >> well, i think that certainly many republican leaders such as grover or others, they're influential, but i do think that tax reform has never been considered a tax increase. if more people are working and more people are paying taxes and it's a fairer system that gets more taxes paid instead of avoided, that's tax reform, and it is not an increase. and i think grover has always made that distinction. and i think most reasonable people have. >> are you today -- the defense department is going to formally announce they're ready to implement the repeal of don't ask, don't tell. are you confident that the defense department's ready? >> i'm not. i really don't think that we
6:20am
should be puttingk(q people whoe in harm's way, in very close quarters, in any kind of an uncomfortable position. i think it is not the right decision, but it is a decision that's been made. >> and finally, 120 political question. you're governor. you've run against rick perry who is thinking about running for president. are you able to support rick perry if he's the republican nominee over president obama? >> well, let me say that, of course, if he's the republican nominee, i'm going to support the republican nominee. >> but he is not your first choice for the republican nomination, is that fair to say? >> well, i'm looking for the candidate that has had real business experience. i am looking for governor perry's opinions on federal issues. i don't know what they are, because he's been critical of the federal government, but i don't know what his positions would be. i do think from my experience in
6:21am
the senate that we need more people in the arena who have had real business experience, who have lived with the overregulation and the overtaxation of our businesses. so, i've always thought that was an important component, and i think it's one of the things that president obama has not had, and it's one of the reasons that we're in such economic trouble. >> well, there are only two candidates or three, actually, candidates that fit your requirement. mitt romney, jon huntsman, and herman cain. does that mean those are among the three you're thinking about? >> oh, certainly. i think those three are good. i think others are very good, too. i think michele bachmann has been terrific, i think tim pawlenty has been a very strong governor. i think those are important key elements in leadership, but i also think that having real hands-on business experience is a factor that hasn't been considered enough in our presidential elections, and i
6:22am
think could make a real difference. >> all right. senator kay bailey hutchison, republican from texas. happy birth-day, by the way. i know it's your birthday today, and it's an important day today, because it's my mom's birthday. >> we'll always remember good. and bob dole's, too, happy birthday, bob dole. >> right. thank you very much. >> thank you. nbc goes behind the scenes with marco rubio, but first today's trivia question. only three states have voted for third party presidential candidates two or more times since 1900. name the three states. tweet me the answer, jeff greenfield, @chucktodd, the answer and more coming up on "the daily rundown." i mean it, mom, happy birthday. know the feeling? try acuvue® oasys brand contact lenses with hydraclear® plus for exceptional comfort.
6:23am
it feels like it disappeared on my eye! [ male announcer ] discover why it's the brand eye doctors trust most for comfort. acuvue® oasys brand. ♪ ♪ i like dat, all right [ male announcer ] mio. a revolutionary water enhancer. add a little...or a lot. for a drink that's just the way you like it. make it yours. make it mio.
6:24am
but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare.
6:25am
6:26am
marco rubio is seen by many as the answer to republican prayers in the future, a fresh new face to someday leave the party. we got behind the scenes access to rubio's ascent. good morning. >> you're a florida guy so you know how important he is to the party right now, when he had the big, big win in 2010, so much attention and when he got to the senate he played it low, kind of old school. not leading the way at news conferences or speeches on the floor, took his time to learn the place and get to know some veterans and then begin to emerge. and so we caught up with him to get a sense of what's his day like, inside his senate experience. >> reporter: leaving his workout by 7:00 a.m. attending daily catholic mass at 8:00. sweat and faith, both drive florida republican marco rubio. >> i've always been kind of a morning person. >> reporter: rubio just turned 40, less than half the age of
6:27am
more senior colleagues. do you feel a learning curve? >> i do. part of it is finding your voice. >> reporter: one generational plus, rubio's dad voice -- >> hi dad. >> reporter: can beam across his laptop. >> did you eat something with sugar? >> reporter: daily chats with his four children in miami. staying connected but in most days 1,000 miles apart. >> i can coach his teams, but i miss half the games at least. >> reporter: the son of cuban immigrants. his father was a bartender. his mother a clerk at kmart. here speaking english and spanish, he records a video message for constituents. wife jeanette and their kids made a rare trip to washington, d.c., to see a senate tradition. rubio was the last of the new class to speak from the senate floor. >> the world that still needs america. >> reporter: clearly looking to build credibility on foreign policy and build relationships, including some democrats like fellow floridian senator bill
6:28am
nelson. do you feel like a mentor to senator rubio? >> not a mentor, a colleague. >> reporter: swept into washington on tea party energy -- >> we fully embrace the tea party sentiment. >> reporter: -- rubio now keeps his distance and refused to join the tea party caucus. >> i get skeptical when washington tries to institutionalize something. >> reporter: he said he'll ignore calls to run for vice president. >> i am flattered, i really am. >> reporter: don't you expect to be fully on somebody's short list. >> i'll not be the vice presidential nominee for the republicans. >> reporter: you wouldn't serve? >> i don't think they're going to call because they'll probably see the interview. >> reporter: we know that won't stop them from calling if there's a nominee who thinks rubio can help him or her in the general election campaign. one of the things we're saying he's coming out more critically against the president and that's an important step in moving up in the party, he's beginning to do the national interviews, the
6:29am
first spanish language interview will be on telemundo, he's bringing the hispanic influence support is there and he's about foreign policy and talking about the debt, chuck? >> kelly o'donnell, fascinating profile, interesting tod hersel the senate and barack obama. he pulled a page from boat. and rubio will be a host on telemundo hosted by jose diaz-balart. who's winning and who's losing for 2012 as congressional maps get redrawn across the country? up next we're geeking out on "the daily rundown," busting out the redistricting map with the two best in the business. plus, rupert murdoch's troubles follow him across the pond, the u.s. justice
6:30am
department is getting involved. you're watching "the daily rundown." [ male announcer ] walls can talk. but it's our job to make them say something interesting. so how about this weekend we learn some new tricks of the trade... then break out our doing clothes and get rolling. let's use some paint that helps us get the job done in record time and makes a statement when we're finished. we're lowering the cost of a new favorite color. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. glidden premium paint has been rated a best buy, and you can only get it at the home depot.
6:31am
6:32am
6:33am
welcome back to "daily rundown." it's just past the half hour, rupert murdoch's news corp. has its hands full, multiple investigations in great britain for allegedly bribery and phone hacking. the u.s. justice department and the fbi are examining whether the company broke laws in the united states. michael isikoff has been looking in to this. what do you know? what's the status of these probes? >> well, you know, the heat is turning up a bit. there's a report this morning that the -- the federal prosecutors are preparing subpoenas to news corp. on the phone hacking allegations. we also reported last night that the feds are interested in a prior act of computer hacking alleged against a major news corp. subsidiary, news america
6:34am
marketing, which was accused in a court case of hacking on repeated occasions into the computers of one of its compoters thcompote e competitors that led to an out-of-court settlement. there's a report today that news corp. has hired the former top prosecutor at the justice department in charge of foreign corrupt practices act. that's because one of the avenues of investigation is were those bribes paid to scotland yard officers by "news of the world" a violation of federal anti-bribery law. so, there's -- there's multiple fronts on which this is escalating for news corp., on top of the reports today that james murdoch may have to go back before parliament. >> and, mike, is any of this touching the media properties in the united states yet of the rupert murdoch empire, or is all this still stemming from the actions done with the uk media properties? >> well, certainly the computer
6:35am
hacking is an allegation involving a news corp. subsidiary in the united states, so that's the jurisdictional hook there. there's a problem there because it took place seven years ago, outside the statute of limitations, but if there is a pattern of conduct that could be established here, that would be the basis by which the feds could bring charges. but, you know, it's early yet. we got to be cautious. >> all right, mike isikoff, our national investigative correspondent, mike, thanks very much. >> thank you. all right, once every decade, i've been promising you this for days, states redraw their congressional district lines often to the benefit of the party in power. well, it's party time for political geeks like me, and with control of congress at stake, it leads to plenty of potential lawsuits and political maneuvering on both sides. the last time we redrew lines, it took us almost a decade to re-redraw them. helping to make sense of it all are the best on the topic, nathan gonzalez and he's a contributing writer for "roll
6:36am
call" and david wasserman is the house editor at the "cook political reporter." we love to have charlie and stu on, now we've got the brains on. will i get in trouble with our friends there. gentlemen, welcome. we'll try to break it down and make it tv friendly, we'll focus on four states up on the map, north carolina, illinois, california, and florida, as we know, we lay it out, republicans have a 24-seat advantage right now and the question is what will their advantage be after redistricting is done. david wasserman, let me start with what's going on in north carolina. this is a state where republicans are dominating the process. >> absolutely. and, you know, republicans like to accuse democrats of chicago-style politics in illinois, and we'll get to that in a second. but in north carolina they're taking a machete, not just a knife, to the current map and reorganizing the political maps to their advantage. we see this from time to time when republicans gain a new majority or when democrats gain a new majority, they reorganize the map. after 2010, there are only six
6:37am
white conservative democrats remaining in the house. >> and how many of them are in north carolina? >> and three of them are in north carolina. and all three of them could be drawn out of their districts in 2012. so -- >> remind me of this, there's a democratic governor. some people, say, wait a minute, there's a democratic governor, how is it happening, but this is a state where the governor is not involved in the process? >> democrats shot themselves in would be a republican governor to redrew their maps, and so they took the veto power away from the governor. >> because they thought they would control the legislature for years. >> exactly and we see the hubris play out all the time. >> chicago-style politics in the great state of illinois, the democrats are dominating the process. walk me through it. >> the democrats aren't in control in the redistricting process in too many states, illinois is one of them, and they maximize it, and the
6:38am
republican strategists look at the map with admiration, wow, this exactly what we would have done if we were in their shoes. it looks like a plus four to minus five for republicans. >> north carolina didn't gain one even if they thought they were going to. >> there's an opportunity for the democrats to pick up a fift were very cited. some of the excitement is gone -- >> because of north carolina sort of neutralized it. now we'll go to california and florida, because this is basically whatever happens here is going to decide who truly wins in these two cities -- who truly wins the redistricting. california has changed how they draw the line, david wasserman, walk me through it. i hear a dry cleaner's involved, okay? >> it's the huge laboratory of reform and it's really unprecedented territory for redistricting. having average citizens come into the process and take control of drawing a map literally -- >> a dry cleaner, a die who owns a dry cleaning.
6:39am
>> a chiropractic. >> they are involved. >> they are involved in redrawing lines for all the politicians who have grown accustomed to drawing lines for themselves and choosing their own voters it's a huge laboratory of reform and the question we're asking ourselves which incumbents will end up rats in this experiment. i think when you consider in the last ten years, there hasn't been a single democrat to lose reelection -- >> an incumbent to a republican. >> in the last ten years there's been only one republican to lose re-election in california in general elections. so, i could see 10 to 15 indid couple bent incumbents saying to hell with it and retiring. >> it will probably be in the democrats' favor, but we don't know how many. nathan gonzalez, state of florida. this is the most gerrymandered swing state in the country for decades and now republicans don't have a chance to get advantage. >> the process has changed slightly, but there's the new fair districts law that puts restrictions on how they can
6:40am
divide up counties and communities and so democrats are optimistic even though they're not in control, so florida's gaining two seats. one of them's likely to be in southwest florida. one will likely be in the orlando area, between orlando and tampa. probably a democratic seat. but if democrats think there's a -- there's a correction that needs to be delegation right now is so republican they believe this fair district law will bring it closer to -- >> and they think they can file a lawsuit, right, and then let a court order forcing a redrawing? >> democrats will go to state court. republicans will try to get a precleared in federal court. it's all going to be with the is the actual breakdown, 241-93. what's the republican, what's the sort of real number going into election day that they'll have? >> well, there are more two real numbers. democrats might on a good scenario end up with four to five additional seats out of redistricting.
6:41am
but the next 20 seats they would need to take back the house and get to 218 get a lot harder through the process. it's kind of like if you look at america as a whole, americans are increasingly self-sorting themselves into the like-minded neighborhoods and precincts, so it becomes easier for jerry nders to redraw the map in one party's favor. >> nathan, do you think is that about the number? or could it get lower? >> i think that's the best-case scenario for democrats on redistricting, but handicapping the house, redistricting throws it into -- i don't want to give your viewers too much information about how we do our job, but it's good to know where people are running and who is running and right now in 30 states we don't have a final map. we don't even know who is run for the house. >> it could come down to a dry cleaner and a uj? >> nathan gonzalez, david wasserman, thank you. we didn't get to texas, by the way, which could be as crazy. coming up, the summer of speculation, perry, palin,
6:42am
giuliani, and, yes, that's right, donald trump. our panel is here to analyze all the latest 2012 news. but, first, the white house soup of the day. it's a friday favorite of theirs. it's a gumbo day. you got to do a little seafood on a friday. make everybody happy. very politically correct thing to do, right? our watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. yup, america's favorite. so we're celebrating the honey sweetness, crunchy oats and... hey! don't forget me!! honey nut cheerios. make it your favorite too! honey nut cheerios. every day you live with the pain of moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis could be another day you're living with joint damage. help stop the damage before it stops you
6:43am
by asking your rheumatologist about humira. for many adult patients with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis humira has been proven to help relieve pain and stop joint damage. humira's use in patients with ra has been evaluated in multiple studies during the past 14 years. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal events can occur such as, infections, lymphoma or other types of cancer, blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before starting humira, your doctor should test you for tb. ask your doctor if you live or have been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores.
6:44am
you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. make today the day you talk to your rheumatologist. and ask how you can defend against and help stop further joint damage with humira. [ tires squeal ] an accident doesn't have to slow you down. with better car replacement, available only from liberty mutual insurance, if your car's totaled, we give you the money to buy a car that's one model-year newer with 15,000 fewer miles on it. there's no other auto insurance product like it. better car replacement, available only from liberty mutual. it's a better policy
6:45am
that gets you a better car. call... or visit one of our local offices today, and we'll provide the coverage you need at the right price. liberty mutual auto insurance -- responsibility. what's your policy? when you look at the pressure the president is under on capitol hill, you may wonder why anyone would want the job these days, but as we speak more republican candidates may be jumping in the race. panel time, chris cillizza is managing editor of politics.com, and political analyst karen finney and my right handman, nbc political director mark murray, he's here. let's start with a little old poll junkie, okay? quinnipiac came out this morning, chris cillizza, and, you know, it shows the same thing on the national polls.
6:46am
the president's vulnerable, but who can beat him? he's ahead of all the major candidates including romney. >> he is, and do you know what's fascinating, chuck, if you look at obama's numbers in a vacuum, you know, he's really v lly vule on the economy. >> there was a "washington post" poll. and the "washington journal" poll, go ahead. >> you look at him a vacuum and say, it will be trouble. but in ohio in the national polling, you are kind of like ultimately the races aren't about president obama versus president obama or president obama versus a generic republican it's about president obama versus one of the republican candidates none of whom at the moment with the possible exception of michele bachmann is making anyone in the republican party even all that excited. >> that's the puff argument, but karen finney, the president of the united states said, hey, at the end of the day it doesn't matter who i run against, they'll make a decision about me which, of course, not what the talking point is of -- >> that wasn't on the script.
6:47am
>> -- that wasn't on the script. was it one of the classic washington gaffes? this is more a referendum on the president, yes, it matters who he runs against, but it matters more what the public thinks? >> absolutely. it was a washington gaffe in the sense that it was an honest answer most likely. which we're not supposed to do. but if you look at the republican field, all due respect to john kerry, it feels like it's shaping up like 2004, in that mitt romney is going to be their john kerry. at the end of the day nobody's particularly enthusiastic about one person or some are dogmatic about one or the other but they'll come together in the end mostly to beat president obama, that's the focus. >> mark murray, she did the transition to mitt romney. i want to play to you a sound bite, mitt romney's attacks on the president and the economy have gotten a little extra scrutiny particularly against the dnc, here's what he said yesterday in los angeles, campaigning was what he was doing, but fund-raising was what he was doing.
6:48am
>> obviously the challenges are not the result of the current administration, a lot of the economic woes around you and the country are a result of errors made over a long period of time. >> that's a different answer than he's given about president obama. the romney campaign will say, hey, wait a minute, he's given a version of that answer all the time. >> they reached out to us and said, when he was criticizing obama in pennsylvania and in allentown, that had to do with an economic stimulus that obama touted in allentown, that factory later had closed, this venue in los angeles has been something that had been a problem since the 1990s. the one problem with mitt romney, though, these time of events, more importantly, it seems like he's become the grim reamer, he's standing behind the closed factories, he wants to make the point that the obama policies have failed and where is the change and the hope and the optimism. >> and the democrats' criticism against bush in 2004 was there was no hopefulness. >> both you and karen are right,
6:49am
the election is a referendum on the incumbent, that being said, you have to give people a positive reason to vote for you, too, and mitt romney will have to turn the argument. one point i want to make, when president obama ran in 2008, he ran against george bush, but also he was running against bill clinton. he's running against barack obama, but he might be running against bush, too. not beloved among conserve iati, growing government. >> karen finney, you're a campaign person, when you hear a campaign manager changing like the jon huntsman campaign is doing and it's not labor day, what does that tell you? >> it's not good. there are changes but they've not been able to get themselves off the ground. there was so much pomp and circumstance and then nothing. does anybody even know where he is today or the day before? >> it's the message guy being
6:50am
elevated. >> they want a more aggressive message against president obama, the guy that is stepping is the former rapid responder, and the war room guy for john mccain and arnold schwarzenegger. he knows how to step it up. >> stick around, because we got to talk about the donald afterwards. name the only three states that have voted for third party presidential candidates two or more times since 1900, jeff greenfie greenfield, the answer is alabama, louisiana, and mississippi, all three states votedyzirñ for strom thurman an george wallace. i've got new names you'll want to be following on twitter. this is the nbc news 2012 campaign embed reporters. tivo it, pause it, follow these people at 10:10 a.m. right after the show, we'll let you know who they are covering, where they'll be living and what they'll be doing. we'll be right back.
6:51am
specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. .
6:52am
[ man ] i got this new citi thankyou card and started earning loads of points.
6:53am
you got a weather balloon with points? yes i did. [ man ] points i could use for just about anything. ♪ ♪ there it is. [ man ] so i used mine to get a whole new perspective. ♪ [ male announcer ] the new citi thankyou premier card gives you more ways to earn points. what's your story? citi can help you write it.
6:54am
>> if the economy continues to do badly and if the republicans pick somebody that i think is the wrong person and isn't going to win, i would very seriously running as an independent. and the reason i have to do it that way is because, as you know, what i'm doing doesn't allow me to run sooner than may. >> let's bring back our panel now. donald trump aside and whether he is a viable independent candidate, you know i'm obsessed with this. i think that we are in an environment where this could actually happen, a serious third party candidacy because there's some groups out there dealing with ballot access. >> there is a potential for a third party candidacy, it's just not going to be donald trump. >> well, it could be. it would be more like when nader and buchanan have gotten on the ballot as third-party guys. >> but as far as donald trump goes, we were all here in the spring. all of a sudden the three months have been removed and he's talking once again. you know the saying, you know,
6:55am
fool me once, shame on him. fool me twice, shame on me. i don't think a lot of these people here and people who cover politics are going to buy it at all. >> karen finney, though, white house rooting for an independent to show up or not? strategically you could make an argument they'd be rooting for it. messagewise maybe not. >> i'd say not. a lot of the white house strategy is trying to take case of the basish. >> we're not going to get into that. >> but also make a play for moderate republicans and independents. if you have a third party candidate, one would think that's who they're going to pull off. clearly in the republican primary, in order to get through the republican primary you have to be pretty far to the right. >> americans elect, as we all know, no labels, americans elect is the party perform. they're on the ballot in arizona, i think they think they're going to get on in california. they're all of a sudden going to be in 20 states this year. >> and that's the piece that's always been the hardest.
6:56am
we said it needs to be a rich guy or woman because of the ballot access question. and i would say has there been a time since 1992 where the two parties were less popular? this really is -- you go look at the 2010 election. it was essentially what i call a bare election. republicans weren't -- they were just faster than the other guy. the bear ate the other guy. both parties are so unpopular. >> shameless plugs very quickly. >> chuck, almost always -- today we're in late july, i'm going to plug the upcoming college football season. it's almost there. >> it's almost there? >> i've got my longhorn network ready to go. >> a one-team conference, big 12 what, a joke. >> does texas still play football? >> oh! aggies, through and through. i will come out later today, we will come out with our latest presidential 2012 top ten rankings. we have a new number two. >> do you have a new number ten? buddy romer, this means you.
6:57am
>> karen? >> check out the hill on tuesday, got a column coming out. >> very interesting. chris, karen, mark, great show. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." we'll see you right back here next week. stay tuned, chris jansing coming up next. don't forget andrea at 1:00. bye-bye. in companies embracing the cloud-- big clouds, small ones, public, private, even hybrid. your data and apps must move easily and securely to reach many clouds, not just one. that's why the network that connects, protects, and lets your data move fearlessly through the clouds means more than ever.
6:58am
6:59am